The rising dependence on discounted crude oil has resulted in India's trade deficit with Russia hitting the second-highest place last year, after China, reveals Department of Commerce data. From April through January 2022-23 (FY23), India's maximum trade deficit was with China, at $71.58 billion. This was followed by Russia, where the deficit expanded sevenfold - from $4.86 billion in April-January of 2021-22 (FY22) to $34.79 billion during the same period in FY23.
India's merchandise exports in May rose by 20.55 per cent to USD 38.94 billion, while the trade deficit ballooned to a record USD 24.29 billion, according to government data released on Wednesday.
Sharp compression in imports and declining exports has narrowed the country's trade deficit to 15-month low of $10.3 billion in June.
The trade deficit with China continues to soar at a blistering pace even as India is looking at aggressively increasing and strategising the reach of its products into the Chinese markets.
The Indian rupee, swaying through multiple headwinds, tiding over global trade disruptions and massive foreign fund outlfows, is unlikely to arrest its descent until tariff impact overhangs, notwithstanding robust domestic macroeconomic tailwinds. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which sees the rupee's depreciation as a silver bullet to offset the tariff shock, expects the currency to find its stable course once India reaches a trade deal with its largest trading partner, the US.
The deal shifts the US posture towards India from hostile to neutral, and that matters for growth, points out T T Ram Mohan.
India's net oil import bill could rise by $56 billion to $64 billion annually assuming global crude averages $110 to $115 per barrel in FY27.
A more effective promotion of domestic manufacturing and mining could significantly reduce the trade deficit in key sectors, says T N Ninan.
Exports rise for 8th month, albeit at lower pace
The central bank is yet to consider actions such as a rate hike or mobilising dollar inflows from non-resident Indians to boost forex reserves as it cannot afford to continue with them for long when the rupee's internationalisation tops its agenda, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Officials from both India and the US in the recent past have indicated that a "fair deal" will be concluded soon, with Indian officials holding that more formal rounds of talks are not needed.
Exports declined for the fourth-consecutive month by 10.3 per cent year-on-year to $34.98 billion in May, while the trade deficit widened to a five-month high of $22.12 billion. According to the data released by the commerce ministry on Thursday, key export sectors recording negative growth include petroleum products, gems and jewellery, engineering goods, ready-made garments of all textiles and chemicals. Imports also declined 6.6 per cent, six-month in a row, to $57.1 billion against $61.13 billion in the same month last year, the data showed.
Leading Indian jewellery bodies, including the All India Gem & Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC) and Malabar Gold & Diamonds, have expressed support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's appeal to reduce gold imports and are advocating for enhancements to the Gold Monetisation Scheme (GMS) to unlock India's vast idle gold reserves.
'Once the market decides it wants to go up, it goes up -- no amount of bad news can really hold it back.'
A depreciating rupee, which briefly hit 80 to the dollar on Tuesday, may boost India's exports but price-inelastic imports of crude oil and gold would mean limited relief on the trade deficit, which clocked a record $26.2 billion in June. Due to global risk aversion on the back of geo-political tensions and aggressive policy tightening by the Fed, the dollar has appreciated against most currencies, including the rupee. And, with other currencies depreciating, India's comparative advantage in this respect may be limited.
The measures announced by it risk backfiring, disrupting the foreign exchange market, and intensifying the very pressures they seek to contain, with broader consequences for the economy points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
'FPIs are unlikely to return unless there is equilibrium between valuation premium and earnings growth.'
During the first six months of the financial year, the country's exports dipped by 6.79 per cent to $143.6 billion from $154.1 billion in the same period last year.
Trade deficit shot up by 114.2 per cent in October, this year at $2,021.04 million as against $943.91 million in October 2002.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that preventing second-round effects of supply shocks, where inflation expectations rise due to prolonged disruptions, is the primary role of monetary policy. He also defended the RBI's foreign exchange market interventions, asserting it did not commit to an 'indefensible peg'.
India's current account deficit narrowed to $1.3 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP in the January-March quarter of FY23, mainly due to moderation in the trade deficit and a robust increase in services exports, RBI data showed on Tuesday. However, for the 2022-23 fiscal, the current account balance recorded a deficit of 2 per cent of GDP compared to 1.2 per cent in 2021-22. "India's current account deficit (CAD) decreased to $1.3 billion (0.2 per cent of GDP) in Q4:2022-23 from $16.8 billion (2.0 per cent of GDP) in Q3:2022-231, and $13.4 billion (1.6 per cent of GDP) a year ago [Q4:2021-22]," as per the RBI's 'Developments in India's Balance of Payments during the Fourth Quarter (January-March) of 2022-23'.
Foreign investors pulled out Rs 21,000 crore (around $2.3 billion) from Indian equities over the last four trading sessions amid deteriorating global risk sentiment triggered by the West Asia crisis.
The country's exports in December 2021 surged 38.91 per cent on an annual basis to $37.81 billion due to healthy performance by sectors such as engineering, textiles and chemicals, even as the trade deficit widened to $21.68 billion during the month, government data showed on Friday. Imports in December 2021 too increased 38.55 per cent to $59.48 billion. During April-December 2021-22, exports rose 49.66 per cent to $301.38 billion.
Indian stock markets experienced a significant sell-off, with the Sensex tumbling over 1,300 points, driven by escalating crude oil prices due to US-Iran tensions and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's call for austerity measures, which amplified investor concerns about India's economic outlook.
India's exports jumped by 19.37 per cent to $38.13 billion in November, while imports dipped by 1.88 per cent to $62.66 billion, according to government data released on Monday.
India's exports rose by 2.14 per cent to $36.27 billion in July while the trade deficit almost tripled to $30 billion during the month due to over 70 per cent rise in crude oil imports, according to official data released on Friday. Imports shot up by 43.61 per cent to $66.27 billion in the month compared to July 2021, the data showed. The trade deficit was $10.63 billion in July 2021.
India's exports in January dipped by 6.58 per cent to $32.91 billion, as against $35.23 billion in the same month last year, according to the data released by the commerce ministry on Wednesday. Trade deficit in January stood at $17.75 billion.
The trade deficit stood at $10.14 billion compared with $9.22 billion in November, a trade ministry official said on Friday.
The country's exports rose by 48.34 per cent to $32.5 billion on account of healthy growth in shipments of petroleum products, gems and jewellery, and chemicals, leather and marine goods, according to the data released by the Commerce Ministry on Thursday. Imports in June too rose by 98.31 per cent to $41.87 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $9.37 billion as against a trade surplus of $0.79 billion in the same month last year. During April-June 2021, the exports increased by 85.88 per cent to $95.39 billion.
After recording positive growth for two months in a row, India's exports dipped marginally by 0.25 per cent to $27.67 billion in February and trade deficit widened to $12.88 billion, according to preliminary data released by the government on Tuesday. Imports grew 6.98 per cent to $40.55 billion during the month, the data showed. The trade deficit stood at $10.16 billion in February 2020. Exports during April-February 2020-21 were $255.92 billion, compared with $291.87 billion during the same period of last year, exhibiting a negative growth of 12.32 per cent.
'In all these years of rupee depreciation, of rising oil prices, of inflation caused by import dependence, not one leader had the courage to look the people in the eye and say: Please do this for your country.'
September import growth was the second lowest this fiscal year, after the April growth figures of 4.6 per cent, bringing the trade deficit down to $13.98 billion
Indian oil marketing companies are incurring significant losses, selling petrol at a Rs 14 per litre loss and diesel at Rs 18 per litre, as elevated global crude oil prices, exacerbated by the West Asia crisis, outpace capped retail fuel rates, according to rating agency Icra.
Lakshya Sen lost a hard-fought match to Li Shi Feng in their Thomas Cup tie, putting India behind China 0-1. Despite a strong showing at the All England Championships, Lakshya couldn't replicate his success, losing in three games.
Indian benchmark stock indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed nearly 1 per cent lower due to surging crude oil prices, weak global market trends, and significant foreign fund outflows, with geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns further dampening investor sentiment.
Exports of goods during August rose 27 per cent to $ 16 billion, from $ 12.61 billion in the same month last year. Imports rose sharply by over 51 per cent at $ 29.94 billion due to the increase in the value of crude oil imports. The government is worried about the rising trade deficit. "It is a cause of concern. But the fundamentals of the economy are strong and we will be able to absorb it," said a commerce ministry official.
In the Financial year 2013-14 there were encouraging signs on the foreign trade front as India's trade deficit recorded a sharp fall.
While the import of gold fell by about 11 per cent to $2.58 billion in February as against $2.89 billion in the corresponding month last fiscal, inward shipments of petroleum products were down by nearly 8 per cent to $9.37 billion.
Ayush Shetty's comeback win keeps India in the contest after Lakshya Sen and the doubles pair of Satwiksairaj Rankireddy and Chirag Shetty lost their matches against China in the Thomas Cup Finals.
Imports during October also rose by 17.62 per cent to $44.11 billion, leading to widening of trade deficit to $17.13 billion.
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